Wednesday, June 22, 2016

2019: APC BATTLE OF TITANS


BODE OLAGOKE takes a look at the supremacy  battle ahead of 2019, between two chieftains of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), former Lagos state governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and a former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar.

While some call it political rivalry, some say it is political permutations and others believe it is struggling for the soul of the governing party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), there is  clearance division when a critical look is given to the body languages of the two national leaders of APC, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Asiwaju Bola Hammed Tinubu.

The two heavyweights are political champions whose doggedness could not be easily forgotten in the political history of Nigeria.

But there is no doubt in the that both Atiku and Tinubu are currently opposition to each other in terms of political interest despite showing the world the same symbol of the broom.

This opposition is attributed to the soul of the governing party (APC) and the political ambitions of the gladiators ahead the 2019 general elections.

Before Atiku and Tinubu came together again in APC, the Asiwaju of Africa, as he is fondly called, had in 2007 released his platform, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) for the former vice president to realise his presidential ambition but Atiku jumped the ship and back to the PDP after a failed attempt.

Atiku, having tried again and again to secure the then ruling party’s (PDP) ticket without any success, agreed to join Tinubu again in the opposition when the center could no longer hold for him and others in the PDP then, because of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s second term presidential ambition.

Atiku’s sojourn to APC
APC as a party is a child of five mothers. It was formed by five political parties, the then ACN, ANPP, CPC , a faction of APGA and the DPP.
The party went through a tough time, all forms of opposition and predictions that it will not last for one year, among others. But the doggedness of the likes of Tinubu of the ACN, Muhammadu Buhari of CPC and Chief Ogbonnaya Onu of ANPP remains unforgettable in the history of political alliance in the country.
Having successfully registered the party, political observers believe that APC existed without life until the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, historically led the then five governors Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa and Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers states to join the APC after staging a walk out on the PDP mini-national convention in Abuja.
This fact was publicly attested to by Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo state, at a valedictory dinner organised by the Progressive Governors Forum in honour of the some outgoing governors, late last year.
Okoroch, who himself contested the party presidential ticket against President Buhari admitted that the defection of five PDP governors in 2013 to the APC was a deciding factor in APC’s victory in the last general elections.
The Imo governor added at the event that the five governors took an enormous risk given what he described as a “vindictive” federal government then.
Gov. Okorocha said by defecting to the APC, the governors transformed “a fledgling opposition into a national political movement”.
“…The moment the PDP lost five Governors was the moment it lost the presidency and its planned 60 years in power”, he emphasized.

The power tussle
The supremacy battle between the former Lagos state governor and former vice president obviously began during the presidential primary of APC. While Atiku did everything to be the flagbearer of APC, Tinubu did not hide his opposition to him, and worked hard to get all the governors behind Muhammadu Buhari as the party presidential candidate.

While Tinubu won the round one battle at the presidential primary, Atiku won the round two at the National Assembly leadership struggle.

The foot soldiers in the battle field at the National Assembly involved  President of the Senate, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Right Honourable Yakubu Dogara, Honourable Femi Gbajabiamila, Senator George Akume, Senator Ahmed Lawan. The APC governors and the party’s National Working Committee members attempted fruitlessly to play mediatory roles.

They are also discovered to be waging the war at the instance of certain political godfathers or principals, including APC National Leader, Tinubu,  Atiku, amongst others.

Both Saraki and Dogara, the present Senate President and House Speaker respectively, were not seen as the candidates of Tinubu and the party but solidly backed by Turaki Adamawa, and they had their ways. This is evident as both Saraki and Dogara chose to visit Atiku in his Abuja residence immediately they got the leadership of  the National Assembly.

Of recent was also plunging of APC into factional struggle for power between the legacy parties which includes the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), including the co-opted new Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The PDP leading a faction that aggregated greater proportion of CPC and ANPP members and knocked out the ACN which had alliance with minority ANPP and CPC members.
The PDP-led faction constituted a conglomeration of APC members who also play the role of minor godfathers in their respective micro political entities, particularly, their states, with extended intra-regional influence.

On this divide was Atiku, leading some former northern Governors in the Senate like Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso of Kano, Senator Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko and incumbent baby Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, among others, who had good working relations with the PDP.

The factional struggle was publicly testified to recently by one of the die-hard foot soldiers of Turakin Adamawa and the deputy national publicity secretary of APC, Comrade Timi Frank, who revealed to the world the existence of factions within the governing party (APC).

Speaking with journalists at his residence in Abuja on the brewing crisis in the party, especially with regard to the tussle for influence in his home state (Bayelsa) chapter of APC, Frank said there were lingering intra-party disagreements even though the leadership was pretending otherwise.

According to him, the national leadership appears not to be doing much to harmonise the aggrieved persons interests so that the party can move forward.

“If anybody should tell you that there is no division even at the national level, they’re telling lies, I can tell you there are issues, there are very critical issues. The issue of the senate president is still lingering, nobody is saying anything at the national level but I tell you, any Nigerian that knows will tell you very clearly that with the body language of our party as at today, if we are not careful, we are going to lose our popularity,” he said.

The deputy spokesman warned that the party and everyone who has sacrificed to lift it up will become the loser if nothing is done to arrest the widening division within the ranks of members.

“It will be a big disgrace that we have hands that are not competent at the centre to harmonise the aggrieved persons and make us move forward.

“So there is crisis in the party. If anybody says there is no crisis, it is a lie. We have many divisions right now within the party, so I won’t be scared to speak. That is my personal opinion and I have spoken again and I will continue to speak out.

“I have nothing to worry about, in a matter of short time, this will come to play out. I spoke of problem in my state, Bayelsa, but people ignored me. I am speaking again, it would happen soon at the national level that these things we are sweeping or hiding have started already,” he said.

Challenge of Tinubu’s political empire
The contributions of Bola Tinubu to the success of APC as a political party today is unquantifiable. Without the doggedness of Tinubu, coupled with his resources, APC wouldn’t have gotten registration, let alone winning the election.

There is no doubt that Tinubu sacrificed his political empire, the ACN which was built around him for the success of APC.
Tinubu who was supported by Chief Bisi Akande, former APC Action National Chairman and other political lieutenants who would have provided additional support for him like former governor Babatunde Fashola, former Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti state, (now ministers), including incumbent APC governors in the southwest have been seen to be neutral in the power tussle.

Event watchers also believe that Tinubu’s battle in the APC is further compounded by former President Olusegun Obasanjo who has seemingly been hobnobbing with Buhari to entrench his personal political influence in the Presidential Villa beyond any other political leader from the southwest.

According to them, the former president is widely perceived to have constituted a major blockade for Tinubu. Many stakeholders have been expressing the view that Tinubu was not being favoured in the ministerial appointments by Buhari, pointing accusing fingers at Obasanjo.

Buhari the rallying point
It is not certain for now whether President Muhammadu Buhari will re-contest election come 2019, but the two gladiators are out with strategies and political permutations, closely working with the president being seen as publicly identifying with him.

Apart from several constant visits to the presidential Villa by the two gladiators, the recent visit to London, on the same day but different time, by Tinubu and Atiku, to identify with the president who was on 10 days medical leave also speaks volume of the rivalry between the two chieftains.
Political analysts believe that the the rivalry will reach its denouement in the 2019 general elections. By then, if not carefully managed within the party, another winner or loser will emerge, aside Tinubu or Atiku and APC might be the biggest loser.

Credit: The blueprint

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